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PlusMarkets Analysis • 11/10/2021
The Market data was collected on 11 October 2021 at 09:30, and might have changed since then. Kindly refer to the listed sources for the most recent and updated information.
Dollar Up, with Fed Plans for Tapering Unaltered by Disappointing U.S. Jobs Report
The dollar was up on Monday morning in Asia, hitting a two-and-a-half-year high versus the yen. Figures from the latest U.S. report did not alter market expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin asset tapering as soon as November 2021.
The U.S. Dollar Index that tracks the greenback against a basket of other currencies inched up 0.01% to 94.093 by 10:54 PM ET (2:54 AM GMT).
The USD/JPY pair was up 0.30% to 122.56, remaining above the 112-mark.
The AUD/USD pair was up 0.27% to 0.7326, with Australia’s Sydney re-opening after a more-than-100-day lockdown. The NZD/USD pair inched down 0.04% to 0.6935.
The USD/CNY pair inched down 0.10% to 6.4373 while the GBP/USD pair was up 0.25% to 1.3645.
The U.S. jobs report was disappointing, with non-farm payrolls at 194,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.8% in September. With labor shortages still a possibility and fanning inflation concerns, the Fed is likely to begin asset tapering within 2021, as is widely expected.
U.S. bond yields climbed after the data’s release, with the benchmark 10-year Treasuries yield hitting a four-month high of 1.617%. [EIA/S]
Gold was down on Monday morning in Asia, as the U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to begin asset tapering as per its timeline despite the disappointing data in the latest U.S. jobs report.
Gold futures edged down 0.14% to $1,754.95 by 12:14 AM ET (4:14 AM GMT), with the yellow metal hitting a two-week high on Friday after the release of the U.S. jobs report but then paring gains during the session.
The dollar, which normally moves inversely to gold, inched up on Monday and the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields hit its highest level since early June 2021 on Friday.
The U.S. Labor Department’s jobs report, released last Friday, showed that non-farm payrolls were at 194,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.8%, in September. Although the nonfarm payrolls figure was much lower than the 500,000 in forecast prepared by Investing.com, the Fed is widely expected to begin asset tapering in November 2021 as the number of COVID-19 cases in the country crested and began to decrease.
Oil Up, Continues Multiweek Gains as Increasing Fuel Demand Meets Supply Restraint
Oil was up Monday morning in Asia, continuing multiweek gains. Supply restraints from major producers collided with growing fuel demand as economies continue to re-open and recover from COVID-19.
Brent oil futures rose 1.42% to $83.56 by 11:57 PM ET (3:57 AM GMT), after gaining almost 4% last week. WTI futures jumped 1.93% to 80.88, the highest since late 2014. U.S. crude rose 4.6% through Friday. Both Brent and WTI futures were above the $80 mark.
With more populations coming out of lockdown, including Australia’s Sydney which emerged from a 107-day lockdown, fuel demand has increased and driven prices up. Brent futures have risen for five weeks while WTI futures have gained for seven.
Although coal and gas prices have surged as economic recovery from COVID-19 continues, increasing crude oil inventories in the U.S. after recent draws could impact the black liquid.
«We think crude prices will struggle to climb much higher this quarter and still forecast them to gradually drop next year,» Capital Economics chief commodities economist Caroline Bain said in a note.
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